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Predictions for Fall 2021 International Student Enrollment

As colleges and universities conclude their spring semesters, uncertainties remain around fall enrollment numbers—especially among international students.

On May 27, the United States Department of State announced that individuals in China, Iran, India, Brazil, South Africa, the Schengen area, the United Kingdom and Ireland now qualify for a National Interest Exception—which allows travel to the U.S. for those “whose entry is of national interest.” Students are among those who qualify.

But ongoing restrictions, visa delays and embassy closures continue to make it difficult for international students to attend school within the U.S.

Last fall, the total number of international students studying at U.S. higher education institutions decreased by 16%. There was also a 43% decline in new international students, with almost 40,000 choosing to defer, according to an Institute of International Education (IIE) report.

Historically, after previous epidemics and pandemics such as SARS, swine flu and Ebola, short-term drops in international enrollment were noted. However, within a year or two, enrollment numbers recovered.

Jonah Kokodyniak, senior vice president of the program development and partner services at IIE, anticipates similar outcomes for the COVID-19 pandemic as many campuses announce plans to fully reopen to international students for the fall semester. But challenges remain in certain areas of the world, including high infection rates in India.

“Otherwise, I think the relatively fast vaccine rollout relative to other major host countries and also major sending countries will benefit U.S. institutions quite well this fall and in the spring as students come here,” said Kokodyniak.

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