The United States must produce an additional 712,000 certificates and associate's degrees annually through 2032 to address critical shortages in credentials that lead to high-paying middle-skills jobs, according to new research from Georgetown University's Center on Education and the Workforce.
The study, "Bridging the Middle-Skills Gap: Connecting a Diverse Workforce to Economic Opportunity Through Certificates and Associate's Degrees," reveals that these shortages are concentrated in four key occupational areas: blue-collar jobs (360,800 credentials), management and professional office positions (253,000), STEM fields (87,500), and protective services (10,600).
High-paying middle-skills occupations offer median annual earnings exceeding $55,000 for workers without bachelor's degrees, yet only one in four early-career workers aged 18-35 currently holds such positions.
"Credential shortages are troubling because the U.S. is in dire need of qualified workers to keep our infrastructure intact, our communities safe, and our industries at the forefront of innovation," said Emma Nyhof McLeod, the study's lead author and senior policy analyst at CEW.
The research exposes significant racial and gender imbalances across high-paying middle-skills occupations. White men hold the plurality of high-paying positions in four of five occupational groups: 68% in blue-collar jobs, 64% in protective services, 58% in STEM fields, and 49% in management and professional office roles.
Women represent only 30% of high-paying middle-skills management and professional office employment, despite holding 53% of lower-paying positions in the same category. This disparity persists even though women earn the majority of middle-skills credentials aligned with this occupational group.
The healthcare sector presents a contrasting pattern, where women earn most middle-skills credentials and account for more than 80% of both high-paying and lower-paying positions. However, the study found that healthcare is the only high-paying occupational group not facing projected credential shortages, partly because employers increasingly prefer workers with bachelor's degrees.
The study reveals troubling disparities in who accesses credentials leading to high-paying healthcare occupations. While men earn just 16% of middle-skills healthcare credentials, they are more likely than women to pursue programs aligned with higher-paying positions.
White men show the highest likelihood of earning credentials for high-paying healthcare occupations at 61%, while Black women face the lowest likelihood at just 22%.
"Credential shortages present an opportunity to diversify high-paying middle-skills occupations and strengthen the American economy by drawing qualified workers from the widest talent pool possible," said co-author Jeff Strohl, CEW's director. "But first, we need to address long-standing disparities in credential attainment and the labor market."
Workers' chances of landing high-paying positions after earning aligned credentials differ significantly across occupational groups. STEM fields offer the best prospects, with 73% of credentialed workers finding high-paying positions, followed by protective services (58%), management and professional office roles (47%), and blue-collar occupations (37%).
The research indicates that even workers with aligned credentials who end up in lower-paying positions still earn more than those in lower-paying occupations without relevant credentials.
To address these shortages equitably, the study suggests that credential distribution should reflect overall enrollment patterns across demographic groups. Achieving this goal would require increasing credentials aligned with high-paying blue-collar occupations by more than 500% among men and women of all racial and ethnic backgrounds.
The researchers recommend expanding work-based learning opportunities, providing integrated academic and career support services, and addressing hiring and promotion biases to create clearer pathways to high-paying middle-skills occupations.
